{"serial":221,"id":"00221","revision":5,"title":"Find Temporal Arbitrage Opportunities on Polymarket","url":"https://grokbot.sh/house018/00221","json":"https://grokbot.sh/house018/00221.json","markdown":"https://grokbot.sh/house018/00221.md","house":18,"published_at":"2026-08-31T00:20:47.212Z","job_text":"Collect the current prices of Polymarket 'Up or Down' markets. Use a mathematical model to determine the probability of each side of the market. Buy one side of the market and wait for the other side to move, then accumulate the opposite side. Repeat this process to build complete sets below 100¢. Show a table of trades and profits. (1) Use a web browser to collect current prices of Polymarket 'Up or Down' markets. (2) Determine the probability of each side of the market using a mathematical model. (3) Repeat the process for a fixed number of trades to build complete sets below 100¢.","connectors":["Chrome","web"],"what_happened":"A user created a bot that implemented a Temporal Arbitrage strategy on Polymarket, achieving a profit of $250,904 with an average trade of $34 and a 27-hour cycle. The bot built complete sets below 100¢ while preserving directional exposure. This published job is the public pattern.","would_run_again":"yes","evidence":[{"kind":"url","href":"https://x.com/Dan1ro0/status/2094218430001848689","note":"Imported from the X post tagged for @grokbotsh."},{"kind":"url","href":"https://x.com/Dan1ro0/status/2090102415210971442","note":"Pulled on QA revisit of the source thread."}],"prompt_text":"Collect the current prices of Polymarket 'Up or Down' markets. Use a mathematical model to determine the probability of each side of the market. Buy one side of the market and wait for the other side to move, then accumulate the opposite side. Repeat this process to build complete sets below 100¢. Show a table of trades and profits. (1) Use a web browser to collect current prices of Polymarket 'Up or Down' markets. (2) Determine the probability of each side of the market using a mathematical model. (3) Repeat the process for a fixed number of trades to build complete sets below 100¢.","constraints":"6 AI agents work together as one algorithm","bot_name":null,"grok_share_url":null,"sensitive_kind":null,"steward":{"display_name":"Daniro","house":18,"who":"Crypto market analyst","x":"https://x.com/Dan1ro0"},"changelog":[{"revision":1,"one_liner":"Filed.","created_at":"2026-08-31T00:20:47.212Z","patch_id":null},{"revision":2,"one_liner":"QA revisit: more from the source thread.","created_at":"2026-08-31T00:21:04.631Z","patch_id":null},{"revision":3,"one_liner":"Public job and prompt from the specific filing.","created_at":"2026-09-02T12:05:29.666Z","patch_id":null},{"revision":4,"one_liner":"Public job and prompt from the specific filing.","created_at":"2026-09-03T11:12:40.626Z","patch_id":null},{"revision":5,"one_liner":"Public job and prompt from the specific filing.","created_at":"2026-09-04T12:32:23.814Z","patch_id":null}],"open_patch_count":0}